tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8342487682709238692024-03-08T10:32:33.297-08:00Politics and EconomicsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-834248768270923869.post-75857206302480862322013-11-17T23:27:00.000-08:002016-04-28T22:28:55.921-07:00Globalization and The Economy Bubble and The Cenozoic Era.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The web that breaks</h2>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">Globalization - the great equalizer of nations, or is it the hole that sinks the whole ship, our world?</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">Let as see the good things about globalization and let as take three countries, America, <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">China,</span> and Brazil(for convenience, instead of saying country <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">A, B,</span> and C, you can choose any name <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">for</span> your convenience).</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">Let as examine how globalization helps first. Say America produces computers and mobiles, and they produce more <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">computers(cheaply).</span> Now assume China produces mobiles(phones) and computers and assume they produce more mobiles(cheaply) compared to America. Now here comes globalization. Since America produces more computers and produce it cheaply Americans will sell their computers to China and the Chinese sell their mobiles to America as mobiles are cheaper in China. Now as Americans are selling more and more computers <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">the</span> companies that produce computers will expand and will need more and more staff and will recruit more employees. <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">A similar</span> thing will happen to the <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">mobile</span> industry in china.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">Now what will happen to mobile phone industry in America? As cheap phones are coming to America, the demand for the local mobile industry reduces and finally the mobile industry is crowded out by computer industry in America and the reverse will occur in China. As cheaper products are available customers are happy. And as there <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">is</span> no net loss of jobs occurs nation as a whole is happy.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">Now look at the factories. Suppose there are two firms that produce computers, then they have to equally share the market. The moment one gain more market share the other will loose. To maintain competitiveness the other has to come with a superior product or reduce the cost. The betterment of product has a limit. So the alternative is to reduce the cost and the only way, all else being equal is to reduce the wages. As gradually the product quality will be comparable to the competitive company, the competitor also will be forced to do the same. <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">A similar</span> situation will occur in china regarding the mobile phone industry.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">Now imagine China has cheap labor compared America one company will find it easier to start a factory in china to produce computer there to sell it to Chinese people. Or it may be the third country Brazil they find cheaper. Let <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">us say</span> labor cost is cheaper in Brazil, compared to both America and China, so the company will start branches there and might gradually shift production to Brazil. Gradually the labor cost will rise in Brazil too. The companies will lose the incentive to continue working in Brazil, or can work only to sell products in Brazil. But the major markets will remain America and China. So the companies may even be forced to stop the branches in Brazil. Now Brazil will be forced to reduce taxes to maintain the companies there, <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">otherwise,</span> It will have to find a <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">job</span> for<span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"> its</span> citizens who will be unemployed by <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">layoffs</span>. These will prompt other countries to do the same to maintain or start new companies. Gradually the nations will <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">lose</span> the tax income and to compensate they will have to increases the tax on the laborers. This will reduce the quality of life of the workforce. This may force the companies to increase the salary which they may not be able to do as it will reduce their profit(they cannot increase the product cost as that will reduce their competitiveness).</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">By continuing their factories in Brazil they can operate in a <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">low-cost</span> environment, but their major consumer base will be in America. If they take the factory back to America, they will lose the competitive edge. Americans will be facing another situation. If they do not reduce the labor cost or tax, the companies will be shifting to either Brazil(where both labor cost and tax are low) or to China <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">where</span> <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">tax</span> is law. So the wages will decrease and the tax will increase. But that will force the consumers to spent less on computers and mobiles.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">Now imagine the situation where both America and China are saturated. The number of mobiles and computers that are in demand decreases. No problem the companies will start to sell in Brazil. But in <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">Brazil,</span> the labor cost is <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">low</span> and do to heavy taxing the public is not able to afford computers or mobiles.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">Now the situation becomes dire. The companies have products but nobody to buy it. So gradually they have to reduce the working staff. More people in Brazil first lose jobs. It will further reduce the sale of the companies. They will reduce the workforce in their home countries. These will cause unemployment in the home countries which also will reduce the mobile and computer demand which will <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">set off</span> the vicious circle.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">Now imagine, though the example was for three countries, it is applicable to the whole world. The only advantage is that we will have more time before this cycle start.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">Then suppose imagine a new technology comes which need only 5 humans to produce a given product instead of the usual 10, then we won't have as much as time as we imagine we have.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">So it is time, think of some solution. <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">For now,</span> we know for sure a housing bubble in America can affect the whole world or a tiny Greece can affect our well being. If something can be done, do it immediately or we all are doomed.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">So this is the new bubble, the 'Economy bubble'. When the <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">housing</span> bubble burst it affected the world severely.Now is it really a bubble? No really. It is sudden deflation with no irrational exuberance preceding. So yo have no way<span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"> of</span> predicting but the effects are similar to a bubble, only this will be worse.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">Now if the Economy bubble is burst, there won't be any more bubble, for it will take the world along with the bubble. For along with the economy, law and order to will collapse because of the ensuing hunger that consumes the majority. There will be war, not between nations but between individual humans. The war will end by as killing each other and the survivors die of hunger. <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">In the end,</span> there won't be any <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">survivors.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">Is this the end of<span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"> The</span> Cenozoic Era, <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">where</span> humans are dominant? Or will some humans survive in the remote jungles of Amazon and Africa, to carry on with the species? Only time can tell, but we may not be there to know it or to see the beginning of the new era.</span></div>
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<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">Matthew 25:13. <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">Therefore,</span> keep watch, because you do not know the day or the hour.</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;"></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-834248768270923869.post-55207636598967028732013-11-17T23:13:00.002-08:002016-02-24T22:34:37.109-08:00The Beginning of the End, Deflation and Deficit.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<h3 class="post-title entry-title" itemprop="name" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; position: relative;">
Can you eat gold?</h3>
<div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 7.2pt; mso-outline-level: 2;">
<b><span style="color: #888888; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-transform: uppercase;">THE
NEAR BLIND AUSTRIANS AND THE NEAR SIGHTED KEYNESIANS.</span></b><b><span style="color: #888888; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-transform: uppercase;"></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
Austrian says their theory is the only correct economic theory, they say the
Great depression as the proof of the soundness of their theory and they say
that the present "recession" is to be treated by their prescription -
austerity and <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">them</span> <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">advise</span> you to keep gold as a hedge against the
coming depression. So are they right? Is keeping gold as a bet helps? It <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">will</span> if you can eat gold!!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So
then why their method worked in the <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">great</span>
depression and it does not work now? Because they do not see the short term and
are blind to the changes that occurred in the world. They do not know that the
world, along with the economic system has changed drastically.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So,
are the Keynesians correct? Shall we follow their prescription, shall we call
for more debt and spending. Yes, that should help, but the higher we go, the
more terrible will be our fall. We will fail eventually and if there is any
chance for an escape that will be lost by the eventual fall.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So
what is Austrian economics? <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">In a nutshell,</span>
Austrians say that all the cause of inflation and bad business is money
printing. They say that the money printing can change the <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">economic</span> climate and give a false hope to
entrepreneurs who in turn will invest in a <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">business</span>
where there is no chance of a win lured by easy money. And when the money
availability is tightened the business will fail.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">They
say the great depression was because the <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">low-interest</span>
rates and lavish printing of money(<span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">hereafter</span>,
inflation) and the eventual failing of all the business that started because of
the easy availability of money. So they say the depression was good that they
eliminated all the bad businesses and helped the promotion of good businesses.
They further say that today the Keynesians are not allowing for the dissolution
of the bad business hence the world is not recovering as happened after the
great depression.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
<span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">Keynesians, on the other hand,</span> does not
accept that theory. They say depression is a part of the economy and it cannot
be prevented and to get over <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">it, one</span> has
to create inflation. They say second world war created such a situation helped
by FDR's welfare programs and govt spending that ended the great depression.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So,
who is right and who is wrong?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
irony is that they both are right and wrong at the same time. How come?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">We
will discuss. What actually happened after the great depression?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Was
FDR the first one to start Govt spending? No Wilson started it before FDR.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So
what actually happened? World war preparation started. The Austrians wanted to
ignore this. They say war only causes destruction and war <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">have</span> nothing to do with the end of the <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">depression</span>. I agree war is not good, but I do
not agree that war didn't help at all.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So
what did war do?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1)
It created jobs. Jobs are the primary driving factor of any economy. Without <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">jobs,</span> people will not have money to spent.
Without money no economics work.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2)
It created technology. Research works increased for war preparation. Though the
technologies <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">are</span> primarily directed
towards war after the war the same technologies were used for civilian purposes
which boosted production and jobs. Production increased very much which
increased general well being which further fueled an <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">increase</span> in research and a <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">further</span>
increase in technology. So when people came back from the war they had money to
<span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">spend</span> and jobs to find, both together
ended the great depression.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Along
with <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">these,</span> there was a further boost by
FDR in public works, which increased jobs.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So
as technology progressed and as spending increased more jobs were created and
the <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">population</span> too increased as there
were more jobs and money and leisure.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So
as the <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">Keynesians</span> say, the govt spending
helped and as Austrians say the bad business were dissolved that paved the way
for further good business. But <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">Keynesians</span>
were wrong that it was govt spending alone that ended the <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">depression</span> and Austrian's were wrong to say
govt spending and war has no role.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">But
is it applicable to today's world?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">No.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
govt spending increased, but from where did they get the money? Yes from the
future. It was no problem then, every time a new bond was issued then, as is
now, there are people to buy it. So what changed?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
technology.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">People
got everything they wanted. There is no further increase in technology. The
earlier technologies created robots that increased jobs, but now the technology
is creating machines that take over work and hence decrease jobs.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">But
something drastic happened. As machination increased, urbanization increased.
Population density increased, the <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">population</span>
started to stop growing. As population growth decreased, demand and hence the
need for products decreased and hence the need for jobs.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">And
computers became ubiquitous and a new type of economy was created and the older
'industrial economy' gave way to "service economy".</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">As
service economy progressed and as computers became more powerful, jobs
decreased. As jobs decreased, the population growth is further decreasing.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So
because of the new technology, nothing can stimulate job growth. And because of
urbanization, nothing can stimulate population growth.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So
next time when the government issues a <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">bond</span>,
there may not be enough people to buy it - deficit cannot be covered.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">When
there are no jobs, people cannot spend, and hence demand decreasing and prices
will come down - deflation.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">From
there, there will be a downward spiral. Neither Austrians nor Keynesian has
anything to propose and neither of their medications <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">is</span> effective. Austrians propose a total abstinence from
governmental spending. That will be like removing life support from a
terminally ill patient. Keynesians say government spending<span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"> as a</span> <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">miracle</span>
drug, but that will not produce more jobs or after a time will not even keep
the existing jobs. Then the burgeoning problem of government debt too will rise
and there will be an <span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">eventual</span> collapse.
What we are witnessing is the beginning of the end of human civilization as we
know it.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.5pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So
what will happen to the gold you stored. Everyone has lost their jobs together.
Everyone want food and is not will to exchange whatever food they got with any
amount of gold in the world. What will you do?</span></div>
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